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    馬斯克如何說服沙特王子出資收購推特

    馬斯克如何說服沙特王子出資收購推特

    SHAWN TULLY 2022-05-13
    馬斯克不知道怎么就說服了一批全球最知名的投資者,與他一起花大價錢做這筆看起來毫無吸引力的買賣。

    埃隆·馬斯克肯定是個了不起的推銷員。

    特斯拉(Tesla)這位首席執行官正在帶頭收購推特(Twitter),他開出了440億美元的天價,相當于每股54.2美元,一舉將推特之前拿到的最高報價提升了40%。與此同時,股市開始暴跌。而馬斯克的收購要約就在推特發布一季度收益報告前幾天,當時外界普遍預計業績數字會非常難看,可能導致其股價進一步走低——事實也的確如此。推特在迅速失血。它的支出遠超收入,用戶增長一直低于預期。然而,馬斯克已經不知怎么地就說服了一批全球最知名的投資者,與他一起花大價錢做這筆看起來毫無吸引力的買賣。其中最典型的是成功讓推特的長期股東、沙特傳奇億萬富翁阿爾瓦利德?本?塔拉爾王子上船。

    王子的反轉

    馬斯克只用了三周時間就把王子從堅決的敵人變成了堅定的盟友。馬斯克4月中旬宣布收購計劃時,阿爾瓦利德發推表示反對:“我認為這個提案與推特的內在價值相去甚遠。作為推特最大的長期股東之一,我表示拒絕?!钡?月6日,阿爾瓦利德和馬斯克握起了手,他在推特上寫道:“很高興和我的‘新’朋友建立聯系,你會成為推特的優秀領導者,最大限度地推動其發揮其巨大潛力?!绷钊梭@訝的是,阿爾瓦利德并沒有把自己持有的3500萬股(占總股份的4.57%)以19億美元的天價兌現,而是宣布將把所有贏利用于購買馬斯克控股的私有化的推特股份。

    阿爾瓦利德王子是王國控股集團(Kingdom Holding)的創始人,擁有該公司95%的股份。該集團總部位于利雅得,持有許多公司的大量股份,投資橫跨多個不同行業和地區。1991年,阿爾瓦利德私人巨額注資花旗集團(Citigroup),拯救了當時岌岌可危的銀行巨頭,從而聲名鵲起?;ㄆ旒瘓F至今仍是他的重要投資持有。阿爾瓦利德通過王國集團及其個人名義投資,他的投資帝國持有Lyft、Snapchat和沙特石油化工巨頭沙特國家工業化公司(Tasnee)的主要股權。今年早些時候,他非常成功地以22億美元的價格將四季酒店(Four Seasons)四分之一的股權出售給了比爾?蓋茨的瀑布投資集團(Cascade),同時保留了大量少數股權。他的戰利品還包括阿拉伯世界最大的唱片公司Rotana Music。去年,華納音樂收購了阿爾瓦利德20%的股份,成為合作伙伴。

    這位王子以友好型投資出名,不喜歡激進派投資人要求違背管理層意愿進行大規?;刭?、剝離領導層認為的重要戰略業務等做法。十年前,他向尚未上市的推特注資3億美元,所有報道都顯示他是一位耐心又安靜的股東。我們不知道馬斯克是如何說服阿爾瓦利德突然改變主意接受他的計劃,但仔細研究一下交易條款,特別是其中類似杠桿收購的條款將如何放大股權持有人的投資回報,或許可以得到一些啟發。

    杠桿可以讓阿爾瓦利德拿到更多股權

    公開文件顯示,馬斯克和他的銀行家們承諾為這筆交易支付總計465億美元。融資共分為三大塊:130億美元的定期貸款、過橋貸款和其他貸款,由八家銀行提供;272.5億美元的現金,由馬斯克個人和其他投資者籌集;還有62.5億美元是馬斯克以特斯拉股票為擔保貸到的保證金貸款。(這筆信貸差額最初是125億美元,但馬斯克通過招募投資者,減少了一半保證金貸款。)465億美元的總價高于之前廣傳的440億美元左右的收購價。這一差額似乎是為管理層持有的期權和其他權益工具支付的額外費用,導致最后價格膨脹。這是一筆加了杠桿的“私有化”交易,為了給這筆交易融資,馬斯克給推特的資產負債表增加了130億美元的新債務。也就是說,465億美元融資中的股本部分約為330億美元。這是馬斯克的65億美元保證金貸款,加上這位電動車行業大佬及其合作伙伴提供的270多億美元現金。(盡管這筆保證金貸款是馬斯克個人借的,但也算是他在推特的股權。)

    由于這筆收購中近30%的資金來自借貸,投資者們得到的股權比例將超過自己的出資份額。如果阿爾瓦利德擔心現在的買入價格比馬斯克出價前要高得多,而當時他本可以拿到一大筆安全現金,或許這種超額收益可以減緩他的擔憂。王子以每股54.20美元的價格持有的19億美元的股份可以收購推特5.65%的股份,這比他目前所持4.57%的份額高出了近四分之一。當然,按照馬斯克的高額出價將自己的股票重新投入推特是在拿巨大收益冒險,但據報道,馬斯克向潛在投資者保證,他將在幾年內讓推特的收入翻兩三倍,然后按照他改造后的模式重新上市。阿爾瓦利德顯然認為,馬斯克可以推動推特的股價升至遠超54.20美元,而在此之前,這個數字看起來就像天方夜譚。如果成功,在杠桿機制的作用下,王子將從比以前所持更加豐厚的股權中得到額外贏利。

    花衣魔笛手誘惑了更多知名投資人

    這筆交易中仍需填補的是272.5億美元的現金部分??梢钥隙ǖ氖?,如果該交易達成,馬斯克和阿爾瓦利德將成為推特最大的兩個股東。阿爾瓦利德將持有近6%的股權。馬斯克呢?我們還無法準確計算他的股權總額。但可以大致估算一下:在他宣布收購計劃前已經購入的9.2%股份將在交易完成后轉化為約11%的股份,其中的漲幅也是通過杠桿作用實現的。他的62.5億美元保證金貸款在335億美元的總股本中占18.7%。還有我們不知道的部分。在5月初的兩天時間里,馬斯克出售了價值85億美元的特斯拉股票。這部分收益很有可能都將用于購買推特股份,如果是的話,就相當于再增加25%的股份。這樣,他的總持股將達到55%。他和阿爾瓦利德加起來將擁有推特約60%的股份。

    此外,為了籌夠272.5億美元的現金,馬斯克還從20位大投資人那里籌集了71.4億美元的非擔保性融資,其中包括甲骨文公司(Oracle)的拉里·埃里森 (10億美元)、硅谷紅杉資本(Sequoia)和加密貨幣交易平臺幣安(Binance)(各5億美元)。請記住,馬斯克在這筆交易中,通過出售自己原本擁有的9.2%的推特股份,可以獲得40億美元的“收益”,這也填入了272.5億美元里。所以把這40億美元、他極可能用上的從拋售特斯拉股票中得到的85億美元、阿爾瓦利德的19億美元、以及外部投資者的71億美元加起來,總共是215億美元。馬斯克還有50多億美元的現金缺口。

    但是這位推銷員工作很努力。最近的一份文件披露,他正在嘗試說服推特聯合創始人、前首席執行官杰克·多爾西將他的股票貢獻出來,得益于馬斯克的出價,多爾西的股票目前價值9.25億美元,較之前大幅上漲。其他一些大股東也遭到了這位大師的推銷。

    這筆交易的一個關鍵問題是,聰明的投資者為什么要買入這家日漸衰落、資金緊張的企業的股票?過去四個季度,這家企業的自由現金流為負6.2億美元。要知道,這筆交易還將在推特的資產負債表上增加130億美元的新債務,而且是以浮動利率計算,在利率快速上升的當下,相當于一開始就要多付大約6.5億美元的利息支出。近期股市暴跌,而科技股表現最差,這意味著如果不是因為馬斯克出人意料的收購要約,推特的股價將遠低于5月9日每股48美元的價格,甚至可能低于馬斯克出價前的每股39美元。然而,即使是目前的價格,也遠低于54.20美元的出價,說明人們十分懷疑這筆大膽的交易能否落地。

    事實上,馬斯克的銀行和投資者們可能會要求他以更低的價格重新談判。包括興登堡研究公司(Hindenberg Research)在內的一群做空者正在推動這一結果。因為如果馬斯克退出,推特的股價可能會暴跌,其董事會可能會面臨巨大壓力,不得不接受一個更便宜的價格。這種可怕的環境可能會促使馬斯克的投資者們意識到一個顯而易見的事實:即使是在最近的市場崩盤之前,馬斯克的出價也太高了,現在看起來尤其不切實際。馬斯克下一輪魅力攻勢的目標可能是說服推特董事會,用一筆天降橫財換取便宜得多的收購交易。這或許是這位能說會道的銷售大師迄今為止最艱難的推銷。(財富中文網)

    譯者:Agatha

    埃隆·馬斯克肯定是個了不起的推銷員。

    特斯拉(Tesla)這位首席執行官正在帶頭收購推特(Twitter),他開出了440億美元的天價,相當于每股54.2美元,一舉將推特之前拿到的最高報價提升了40%。與此同時,股市開始暴跌。而馬斯克的收購要約就在推特發布一季度收益報告前幾天,當時外界普遍預計業績數字會非常難看,可能導致其股價進一步走低——事實也的確如此。推特在迅速失血。它的支出遠超收入,用戶增長一直低于預期。然而,馬斯克已經不知怎么地就說服了一批全球最知名的投資者,與他一起花大價錢做這筆看起來毫無吸引力的買賣。其中最典型的是成功讓推特的長期股東、沙特傳奇億萬富翁阿爾瓦利德?本?塔拉爾王子上船。

    王子的反轉

    馬斯克只用了三周時間就把王子從堅決的敵人變成了堅定的盟友。馬斯克4月中旬宣布收購計劃時,阿爾瓦利德發推表示反對:“我認為這個提案與推特的內在價值相去甚遠。作為推特最大的長期股東之一,我表示拒絕?!钡?月6日,阿爾瓦利德和馬斯克握起了手,他在推特上寫道:“很高興和我的‘新’朋友建立聯系,你會成為推特的優秀領導者,最大限度地推動其發揮其巨大潛力?!绷钊梭@訝的是,阿爾瓦利德并沒有把自己持有的3500萬股(占總股份的4.57%)以19億美元的天價兌現,而是宣布將把所有贏利用于購買馬斯克控股的私有化的推特股份。

    阿爾瓦利德王子是王國控股集團(Kingdom Holding)的創始人,擁有該公司95%的股份。該集團總部位于利雅得,持有許多公司的大量股份,投資橫跨多個不同行業和地區。1991年,阿爾瓦利德私人巨額注資花旗集團(Citigroup),拯救了當時岌岌可危的銀行巨頭,從而聲名鵲起?;ㄆ旒瘓F至今仍是他的重要投資持有。阿爾瓦利德通過王國集團及其個人名義投資,他的投資帝國持有Lyft、Snapchat和沙特石油化工巨頭沙特國家工業化公司(Tasnee)的主要股權。今年早些時候,他非常成功地以22億美元的價格將四季酒店(Four Seasons)四分之一的股權出售給了比爾?蓋茨的瀑布投資集團(Cascade),同時保留了大量少數股權。他的戰利品還包括阿拉伯世界最大的唱片公司Rotana Music。去年,華納音樂收購了阿爾瓦利德20%的股份,成為合作伙伴。

    這位王子以友好型投資出名,不喜歡激進派投資人要求違背管理層意愿進行大規?;刭?、剝離領導層認為的重要戰略業務等做法。十年前,他向尚未上市的推特注資3億美元,所有報道都顯示他是一位耐心又安靜的股東。我們不知道馬斯克是如何說服阿爾瓦利德突然改變主意接受他的計劃,但仔細研究一下交易條款,特別是其中類似杠桿收購的條款將如何放大股權持有人的投資回報,或許可以得到一些啟發。

    杠桿可以讓阿爾瓦利德拿到更多股權

    公開文件顯示,馬斯克和他的銀行家們承諾為這筆交易支付總計465億美元。融資共分為三大塊:130億美元的定期貸款、過橋貸款和其他貸款,由八家銀行提供;272.5億美元的現金,由馬斯克個人和其他投資者籌集;還有62.5億美元是馬斯克以特斯拉股票為擔保貸到的保證金貸款。(這筆信貸差額最初是125億美元,但馬斯克通過招募投資者,減少了一半保證金貸款。)465億美元的總價高于之前廣傳的440億美元左右的收購價。這一差額似乎是為管理層持有的期權和其他權益工具支付的額外費用,導致最后價格膨脹。這是一筆加了杠桿的“私有化”交易,為了給這筆交易融資,馬斯克給推特的資產負債表增加了130億美元的新債務。也就是說,465億美元融資中的股本部分約為330億美元。這是馬斯克的65億美元保證金貸款,加上這位電動車行業大佬及其合作伙伴提供的270多億美元現金。(盡管這筆保證金貸款是馬斯克個人借的,但也算是他在推特的股權。)

    由于這筆收購中近30%的資金來自借貸,投資者們得到的股權比例將超過自己的出資份額。如果阿爾瓦利德擔心現在的買入價格比馬斯克出價前要高得多,而當時他本可以拿到一大筆安全現金,或許這種超額收益可以減緩他的擔憂。王子以每股54.20美元的價格持有的19億美元的股份可以收購推特5.65%的股份,這比他目前所持4.57%的份額高出了近四分之一。當然,按照馬斯克的高額出價將自己的股票重新投入推特是在拿巨大收益冒險,但據報道,馬斯克向潛在投資者保證,他將在幾年內讓推特的收入翻兩三倍,然后按照他改造后的模式重新上市。阿爾瓦利德顯然認為,馬斯克可以推動推特的股價升至遠超54.20美元,而在此之前,這個數字看起來就像天方夜譚。如果成功,在杠桿機制的作用下,王子將從比以前所持更加豐厚的股權中得到額外贏利。

    花衣魔笛手誘惑了更多知名投資人

    這筆交易中仍需填補的是272.5億美元的現金部分??梢钥隙ǖ氖?,如果該交易達成,馬斯克和阿爾瓦利德將成為推特最大的兩個股東。阿爾瓦利德將持有近6%的股權。馬斯克呢?我們還無法準確計算他的股權總額。但可以大致估算一下:在他宣布收購計劃前已經購入的9.2%股份將在交易完成后轉化為約11%的股份,其中的漲幅也是通過杠桿作用實現的。他的62.5億美元保證金貸款在335億美元的總股本中占18.7%。還有我們不知道的部分。在5月初的兩天時間里,馬斯克出售了價值85億美元的特斯拉股票。這部分收益很有可能都將用于購買推特股份,如果是的話,就相當于再增加25%的股份。這樣,他的總持股將達到55%。他和阿爾瓦利德加起來將擁有推特約60%的股份。

    此外,為了籌夠272.5億美元的現金,馬斯克還從20位大投資人那里籌集了71.4億美元的非擔保性融資,其中包括甲骨文公司(Oracle)的拉里·埃里森 (10億美元)、硅谷紅杉資本(Sequoia)和加密貨幣交易平臺幣安(Binance)(各5億美元)。請記住,馬斯克在這筆交易中,通過出售自己原本擁有的9.2%的推特股份,可以獲得40億美元的“收益”,這也填入了272.5億美元里。所以把這40億美元、他極可能用上的從拋售特斯拉股票中得到的85億美元、阿爾瓦利德的19億美元、以及外部投資者的71億美元加起來,總共是215億美元。馬斯克還有50多億美元的現金缺口。

    但是這位推銷員工作很努力。最近的一份文件披露,他正在嘗試說服推特聯合創始人、前首席執行官杰克·多爾西將他的股票貢獻出來,得益于馬斯克的出價,多爾西的股票目前價值9.25億美元,較之前大幅上漲。其他一些大股東也遭到了這位大師的推銷。

    這筆交易的一個關鍵問題是,聰明的投資者為什么要買入這家日漸衰落、資金緊張的企業的股票?過去四個季度,這家企業的自由現金流為負6.2億美元。要知道,這筆交易還將在推特的資產負債表上增加130億美元的新債務,而且是以浮動利率計算,在利率快速上升的當下,相當于一開始就要多付大約6.5億美元的利息支出。近期股市暴跌,而科技股表現最差,這意味著如果不是因為馬斯克出人意料的收購要約,推特的股價將遠低于5月9日每股48美元的價格,甚至可能低于馬斯克出價前的每股39美元。然而,即使是目前的價格,也遠低于54.20美元的出價,說明人們十分懷疑這筆大膽的交易能否落地。

    事實上,馬斯克的銀行和投資者們可能會要求他以更低的價格重新談判。包括興登堡研究公司(Hindenberg Research)在內的一群做空者正在推動這一結果。因為如果馬斯克退出,推特的股價可能會暴跌,其董事會可能會面臨巨大壓力,不得不接受一個更便宜的價格。這種可怕的環境可能會促使馬斯克的投資者們意識到一個顯而易見的事實:即使是在最近的市場崩盤之前,馬斯克的出價也太高了,現在看起來尤其不切實際。馬斯克下一輪魅力攻勢的目標可能是說服推特董事會,用一筆天降橫財換取便宜得多的收購交易。這或許是這位能說會道的銷售大師迄今為止最艱難的推銷。(財富中文網)

    譯者:Agatha

    Elon Musk must be one heck of a salesman.

    The Tesla CEO is leading the buyout of Twitter by offering a huge price of $44 billion, or $54.20 a share, almost 40% more than the social media's giant fetched before he appeared, and the stock market started tumbling. Musk made his move just days before Twitter delivered a first-quarter earnings report widely expected to be dreadful—and likely to send its stock still lower—and news proved true to form. Twitter is bleeding cash. Its expenses are far outpacing its revenues, and its user growth constantly undershoots expectations. Yet Musk has somehow persuaded a roster of the world's most prominent investors to join him in paying a superrich price for what looks like a dog. Top example: the wooing of a longstanding Twitter shareholder, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the fabled Saudi billionaire.

    Musk converts the doubtful prince

    It took just three weeks for Musk to convert the prince from staunch foe to firm ally. When Musk unveiled his offer in mid-April, Alwaleed riposted on Twitter, “I don’t believe the proposed offer comes close to the intrinsic value of Twitter. Being one of the largest & long-term shareholders of Twitter, I reject this offer.” But on May 6, Alwaleed linked arms with Musk, tweeting, “It’s great to connect with you my ‘new’ friend, you will be an excellent leader for Twitter to maximize and propel its great potential.” Amazingly, instead of cashing in his almost 35 million shares, representing 4.57% of the total, for a princely take of $1.9 billion, Alwaleed declared that he'll effectively roll all of his winnings into stock at the newly privatized, Musk-controlled Twitter.

    Prince Alwaleed is the founder and 95% owner of Kingdom Holding, a Riyadh-based conglomerate that owns big positions in a wide variety of industries and regions. He rose to prominence in 1991 by providing a big private investment that rescued then-ailing Citigroup, still a staple in his portfolio. Alwaleed's empire—he invests both via Kingdom and his own name—encompasses major stakes in Lyft, Snapchat, and Saudi petrochemicals giant Tasnee. He scored a coup early this year by selling a one-quarter interest in hotel operator Four Seasons to Bill Gates’ Cascade group for $2.2 billion, while retaining a large minority share. Among his trophies is the Arab world's biggest record label, Rotana Music. Last year, Warner Music became Alwaleed’s partner by purchasing a 20% interest.

    The prince is renowned for seeking friendly investments and dislikes when activists levy such demands as instituting big buybacks against the will of management and shedding businesses the leaders deem crucial to their strategy. A decade ago, he invested $300 million in Twitter when it was still private, and by all reports has proven a patient, quiet shareholder. We don't know how Musk persuaded Alwaleed to flip and embrace his plan. But reviewing the deal's terms, and especially how its LBO-like leverage could magnify returns to equity holders, provides some hints.

    Leverage would give Alwaleed a bigger part of Twitter

    In public filings, Musk and his bankers promise to provide a total of $46.5 billion to finance the deal. (You can read Fortune’s inside tale of how the deal came together here.) The total comes in three big chunks: $13 billion in term, bridge, and other loans provided by a group of eight banks; $27.25 billion in cash to be furnished from Musk’s personal fortune and raised from fellow investors; and $6.25 billion from a margin loan to Musk secured by $31 billion in Tesla stock. (The original amount of the margin credit was $12.5 billion, but Musk was able to reduce the amount by half through recruiting backers.) The $46.5 billion total is higher than the widely reported purchase price of roughly $44 billion. The difference appears to be extra payment for options and other equity instruments held by management that would swell the final price. This is a leveraged “go private” transaction, in which Musk is piling $13 billion in new debt on Twitter's balance sheet to help finance the deal. The equity portion of the $46.5 billion being raised is hence about $33 billion. That's the $6.5 billion from Musk's margin loan plus the $27-billion-plus in cash from the EV titan and partners. (Although Musk is borrowing the money for the margin loan personally, it’s padding his equity ownership in Twitter.)

    Since debt is financing nearly 30% of the buyout, the investors are getting outsize chunks of equity for the dollars they pledge. That benefit might allay Alwaleed's fears that he's now buying in at a price much higher than before Musk made his bid, when he could be grabbing a safe bundle of cash. The prince's $1.9 billion stake at $54.20 a share will buy 5.65% of Twitter. That's almost one-quarter more than his current 4.57% holding. Sure, he's risking his big gain by rolling his stock back into Twitter at Musk's high price. But Musk is reportedly telling potential investors that he'll double or triple Twitter's revenues in the next couple of years, then take his remodeled vehicle public. Alwaleed clearly thinks that Musk will drive Twitter's stock far above the $54.20 that previously looked like a king’s ransom. If that happens, the prince will get an added boost from a piece of the equity that, courtesy of all that leverage, is fatter than his previous slice.

    The pied piper lures more prestigious followers

    The deal's component still getting filled is that $27.25 billion in cash. It appears certain that if the deal happens, Musk and Alwaleed will be Twitter's two biggest shareholders. Alwaleed will hold nearly 6% of the equity. What about Musk? We can't yet calculate his total portion. But we can get close: The 9.2% bought before he announced his bid will translate into a roughly 11% share when the transaction closes, the bump coming through leverage. His $6.25 billion margin loan will bag another 18.7% of the $33.5 billion in equity. Here's the unknown part. Over two days in early May, Musk sold $8.5 billion in Tesla's shares. It's a good bet those proceeds all go into Twitter shares, adding another 25%. That would bring his total equity position to 55%. He and Alwaleed combined would own around 60% of Twitter.

    Musk has also amassed an additional $7.14 billion toward the $27.25 billion cash, non-margin-financed contribution from 20 big investors, including Oracle's Larry Ellison ($1 billion), Silicon Valley's Sequoia and cryptocurrency exchange Binance ($500 million each). Keep in mind that Musk is effectively adding $4 billion toward the $27.25 billion in cash by leaving the "proceeds" from the "sale" of his own 9.2% stake in Twitter. So add together the $4 billion, the $8.5 billion he'll most likely use from his big Tesla dump, Alwaleed's $1.9 billion, and the $7.1 billion from outsiders, and you get $21.5 billion. Musk's still over $5 billion short on the cash end.

    But the salesman's hard at work. A recent filing disclosed that he's talking to Twitter cofounder and former CEO Jack Dorsey about contributing his shares, now worth $925 million, up substantially thanks to Musk's offer. Several other big shareholders are also getting the maestro's pitch.

    The big question is why any smart investor would buy shares in this fading, money-crunching enterprise that's suffered a negative $620 million in free cash flow over the past four quarters. Keep in mind that the deal will pile a new heap of $13 billion on Twitter's balance sheet at floating rates in a time of fast-rising yields, adding something like $650 million interest expense just to start. The cratering in stocks, with tech doing worst, suggests that Twitter's shares would be selling much lower than their price of $48 on May 9, and probably the $39 pre-Musk quote, were it not for his surprise offer. The current price, however, is far from the $54.20 bid, indicating strong skepticism the daring deal will happen.

    In fact, Musk's banks and investors might demand that he renegotiate at a lower price. A flock of short-sellers, including Hindenberg Research, are pushing for that outcome. Since Twitter's shares could collapse if Musk retreats, its board would be under intense pressure to accept a lower number. This horrible environment could prod his investors to recognize the obvious, that Musk's offer was much too rich before the current near market crash, and looks particularly fanciful now. Musk may aim his next charm offensive at persuading the Twitter board to trade a pennies-from-heaven windfall for a much cheaper deal. It may be the slick master’s toughest sale yet.

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