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    美國解除口罩禁令,“口紅指數”再次引起關注

    美國解除口罩禁令,“口紅指數”再次引起關注

    Chris Morris 2022-05-11
    過去一年的經濟,人們對個人財務狀況和進行大額購物的信心在今年3月降至史上最低,口紅銷量卻每周都在上漲。

    許多人認為,口罩敲響了“口紅指數”的喪鐘。所謂“口紅指數”這種理論認為,口紅銷量與經濟健康狀況呈負相關的關系。

    它一度被證明是正確的。但當口罩遮住了我們的口鼻,口紅幾乎變得沒有必要。(甚至涂口紅會弄臟口罩內部。)不過隨著口罩禁令解除,化妝品行業開始復興。經濟學家又開始跟蹤魅可(MAC)的Velvet Teddy、露華濃(Revlon)的Super Lustrous等口紅的銷量。

    口紅指數認為,在經濟危機期間,人們會減少外出就餐、健身房會員等方面的開支,但會購買小型奢侈品,例如口紅或曲奇餅干等。這個詞來自雅詩蘭黛(Estée Lauder)化妝品公司的榮譽董事長倫納德·勞德,并且有該公司的銷售數據作為依據。換言之,口紅銷量可以作為判斷經濟衰退即將來臨或已經到來的主要線索。

    NPD集團(NPD Group)發現,唇妝(包括唇釉和唇部滋潤商品等)是2022年化妝品市場增長最快的品類。該類產品今年第一季度的銷售收入較2021年同期增長了48%。

    NPD集團的化妝品市場分析師娜塔莉亞·巴姆比扎說:“過去一年的經濟情緒持續下降,與2021年相比,人們對個人財務狀況和進行大額購物的信心在今年3月降至史上最低。但口紅銷量卻每周都在上漲??诩t銷量的穩定上漲表明消費者愿意為這種‘有則很好’的化妝品消費,而且現在人們有一個很好的理由繼續涂口紅??诩t再次成為‘能夠負擔的奢侈品’,消費者希望并且可以通過它來獲得情感上的慰藉?!?/p>

    當然,口紅理論不乏批評者。他們認為口紅銷量很難準確衡量,因為這類產品的制造者眾多,而且很少有公司會單獨列出這一類產品的數據。但隨著通脹率飆升和對經濟衰退的擔憂持續蔓延,預計會有更多的分析師至少會悄悄關注NPD集團下一次公布的數據。(財富中文網)

    譯者:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    許多人認為,口罩敲響了“口紅指數”的喪鐘。所謂“口紅指數”這種理論認為,口紅銷量與經濟健康狀況呈負相關的關系。

    它一度被證明是正確的。但當口罩遮住了我們的口鼻,口紅幾乎變得沒有必要。(甚至涂口紅會弄臟口罩內部。)不過隨著口罩禁令解除,化妝品行業開始復興。經濟學家又開始跟蹤魅可(MAC)的Velvet Teddy、露華濃(Revlon)的Super Lustrous等口紅的銷量。

    口紅指數認為,在經濟危機期間,人們會減少外出就餐、健身房會員等方面的開支,但會購買小型奢侈品,例如口紅或曲奇餅干等。這個詞來自雅詩蘭黛(Estée Lauder)化妝品公司的榮譽董事長倫納德·勞德,并且有該公司的銷售數據作為依據。換言之,口紅銷量可以作為判斷經濟衰退即將來臨或已經到來的主要線索。

    NPD集團(NPD Group)發現,唇妝(包括唇釉和唇部滋潤商品等)是2022年化妝品市場增長最快的品類。該類產品今年第一季度的銷售收入較2021年同期增長了48%。

    NPD集團的化妝品市場分析師娜塔莉亞·巴姆比扎說:“過去一年的經濟情緒持續下降,與2021年相比,人們對個人財務狀況和進行大額購物的信心在今年3月降至史上最低。但口紅銷量卻每周都在上漲??诩t銷量的穩定上漲表明消費者愿意為這種‘有則很好’的化妝品消費,而且現在人們有一個很好的理由繼續涂口紅??诩t再次成為‘能夠負擔的奢侈品’,消費者希望并且可以通過它來獲得情感上的慰藉?!?/p>

    當然,口紅理論不乏批評者。他們認為口紅銷量很難準確衡量,因為這類產品的制造者眾多,而且很少有公司會單獨列出這一類產品的數據。但隨著通脹率飆升和對經濟衰退的擔憂持續蔓延,預計會有更多的分析師至少會悄悄關注NPD集團下一次公布的數據。(財富中文網)

    譯者:劉進龍

    審校:汪皓

    Face masks, many people thought, would be a death knell to the “lipstick index,” the theory that lipstick sales are inversely related to the health of the economy.

    For a while, that proved true. With our mouths and noses hidden behind masks, lipstick became largely unnecessary. (And even if you wore it, it would just smudge on the inside of your mask.) But as mask mandates go away, the makeup industry is seeing a resurgence. And economists are once again tracking sales of MAC's Velvet Teddy, Revlon’s Super Lustrous, and more.

    The lipstick index theorizes that while people cut back on things like eating out and gym memberships when the economy is in crisis, they flock to small luxuries, like lipstick or cookies. It was the brainchild of Leonard Lauder, chairman emeritus of Estée Lauder cosmetics and backed up by that company’s own sales numbers. In other words, lipstick sales could be a major clue about whether a recession is looming—or already underway.

    The NPD Group notes that lip makeup (which includes lip gloss and other pucker enhancers) is the fastest growing area in the makeup category for 2022. Sales revenues in the first quarter were up 48% compared with the same period in 2021.

    “Economic sentiment has been decreasing over the past year, with confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase falling to an all-time low in March, compared to last year,” says Natallia Bambiza, NPD’s makeup category analyst. “But lipstick sales keep growing, week over week. This steady growth illustrates consumers’ desire to splurge on this ‘nice to have’ makeup item, now that lipstick has a good reason to be worn again. Lipstick is once again becoming the ‘affordable luxury’ that consumers want—and can—turn to for emotional comfort.”

    Certainly, the lipstick theory has detractors, who note that lipstick sales are hard to pinpoint, given how many companies manufacture the product and how few break the category out individually. But as inflation rages and fears of a recession continue to grow, expect more than a few analysts to keep at least a covert eye on the next batch of numbers from NPD.

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